56 replies to this topic

[KevinKorell]

There are currently 7 people from our group on that train, all going First Class --- perhaps that would be enough to hold #5 for the connection?

[steve4031]

I'll take one for the team. I'll stand in front of five until you all get here.

[KevinKorell]

I'll take one for the team. I'll stand in front of five until you all get here.

Great, because standing behind it won't do us any good.

[KevinKorell]

Just a note, I've sent via e-mail an updated trains accommodations chart showing where we all are on the trains we are riding together. This includes the two westbound and two eastbound California Zephyrs, as well as any of the eastern trains that 2 or more of us will be riding together in and out of Chicago. The e-mail was sent only to those whose names appear on the chart.

[amtrakwolverine]

Couldn't open the attachment at first. Kept getting Missing or corrupted files contact your computer manufacture. Solved the issue by downloading a add on for office. Excel viewer.

[BillMagee]

With about 100 trips recorded, here is a statistical analysis of three of the more critical arrival times associated with the RRF.

The “10% at or before” time is the time when 10% of the recorded trips arrived by that time and 90% arrived after. That is a decent measure of the earliest likely arrival with a few outliers arriving earlier.

The “Half before and half after” is the time where half of the recorded trips arrived before and half after – the statistical median. That is the arrival time predicted by the trips recorded. If one were a betting person, that would be the “over/under” time.

The “10% at or after” time is the time when 90% of the recorded trips arrived by that time and 10% arrived after. That is a decent measure of the latest likely arrival with a few outliers arriving later.

Put it all together and it provides a range of expected arrivals. For example, #49 arriving Chicago is scheduled to arrive 9:45am. The data says it is 80% likely to arrive between 10:03am and 1:19pm, with 11:14am being the most likely time.

WB #49, Ar CHI (scheduled 9:45am)
10% at or before 10:03am (10th percentile)
Half before and half after 11:14am (median)
10% at or after 1:19pm (90th percentile)
(probability of arrival before 2:00pm, the departure of #5, is 94%)

WB #5 Ar SLC (scheduled 11:05pm)
10% at or before 10:23pm
Half before and half after 11:40pm
10% at or after 2:26am

EB #6 Ar CHI (scheduled 2:50pm)
10% at or before 2:35pm
Half before and half after 4:14pm
10% arrive at or after 8:53pm
(probability of arrival before 6:40pm, the departure of #30, is 80%)

[pennyk]

Thanks Bill for your statistical analysis. I am not real pleased about the odds of connecting from 6 to 30. I guess Kevin had the right idea and is staying in the midwest. Connecting to the Lake Shore Limited does not work for those of us who live in Florida and do not want to spend the night in a hotel. Stressing about it now will do no good. It is what it is, and it will be what it will be.

[jis]

The current issues with the westbound LSL extraordinary delays seems to be primarily three midweek days on which there is track work delays in NY State, that is supposed to end by the end of this month. So we'll see. A two hour delay is par for the course for the westbound LSL.

[steve4031]

5 and 6 are experiencing service disruptions in western Nebraska. Must have been a derailment. 5 has not made it to holdredge. Neither has 6. So the problem is between mccook and Hastings.

Edited by steve4031, 15 June 2014 - 08:39 AM.

[BillMagee]

5 and 6 are experiencing service disruptions in western Nebraska.

Must have been a derailment. 5 has not made it to holdredge. Neither has 6. So the problem is between mccook and Hastings.

Per a post at Trainorders, a grain elevator got blown over and onto the tracks in Atlanta NE. The trains are being held while the debris is cleared.