6 replies to this topic

[KevinKorell]

We're approaching the final month of our Storms of 2012 thread with potentially another slew of topics about Sandy, which as I write this is a Cat 3 Hurricane crossing northward over Cuba. While it may not landfall in the Southeastern states, they will feel the "Nor'Easter" effects of it with damaging winds and heavy rains. We will be watching the resulting effects on rail service in that area by Friday. Then we're currently on alert that this thing can affect the Eastern Seabord anywhere between Virginia and New England, including all major cities on the coast and inland. We are being warned by weather forecasts of long duration power outages, fallen trees, flooding, and other calamities that can affect trains. Effects, if any, will start to be felt in the mid-Atlantic by Sunday, and New England by Monday. We should think of this similar to Irene last year, and hope we don't get the same or more damage from this one. As I'll likely be stranded at work on Sunday or in a hotel (hopefully one with power), I'll work to keep you folks up to date on how the various transit providers are faring. I remember the day after Irene struck last year, I was able to take HBLRT, but when it got to Hoboken, absolutely NO commuter trains were leaving from there because of downed trees along the lines and the power & signal issues that said trees caused. So Sandy please stay away from us, but if you should visit, please be sparing on our transit infrstructure and power transformers so that people can get around and see what other presents Sandy has left us. Wherever I end up spending my Sunday night and Monday I'll keep tabs on everything going on in order to provide you with the latest conditions on each line. In short, Sunday and Monday may not be good days for you to venture out riding trains for fun. If they are running at all, there is no guarantee they will get you to your destination, or back if you are going back the same day. Of course with all that, the storm could hang a right and go out to sea.

[CNJRoss]

AP via WTOP radio, 10/25:

NOAA to East: Beware of coming 'Frankenstorm'

WASHINGTON (AP) - An unusual nasty mix of a hurricane and a winter storm that forecasters are now calling "Frankenstorm" is likely to blast most of the East Coast next week, focusing the worst of its weather mayhem around New York City and New Jersey.

Government forecasters on Thursday upped the odds of a major weather mess, now saying there's a 90 percent chance that the East will get steady gale-force winds, heavy rain, flooding and maybe snow starting Sunday and stretching past Halloween on Wednesday.

SNIP

Some have compared it to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, . . .

Complete article.

[jis]

Even though Sandy is now down to Cat 1 and will probably be just a TS when it comes by the NY NJ area, if it does come ashore south of the NY Harbor entrance, it is likely to cause very significant flooding all along the harbor, and that could get ugly. However, since there is very little history for such a storm track, while all the models are showing something, this could prove to be a pivotal model validation or not moment too. So keep fingers crossed and prepare for massive power outages and significant flooding, and hold tight.

[EvergreenRailfan]

Going Going to be a tough call for Amtrak, NY MTA, New Jersey Transit, and others to make the call, if they have to. Last year with Irene, didn't they get lucky with the storm making it to the NY Area on a weekend?

[KevinKorell]

Storms do damage any day of the week. Yes Irene did hit predominantly on a Sunday, but the following Monday work day there was absolutely no NJ Transit commuter rail service... mostly due to power issues and downed trees. As of now the fringe of the storm will start to affect things on Sunday, and I would surmise that our transit systems will be able to maintain a usual Sunday schedule most of the day unless they individually elect to shut down sooner. Sunday night and Monday, and likely into Tuesday, things may very well deteriorate quickly. Remember that Amtrak has had power problems on beautiful sunny days, so with the high potential for power loss and falling trees, a negative impact is almost certain. Tough call for the commuter and transit operators? No, the conditions will make the call for them.

[EvergreenRailfan]

What I meant, was the time when the most people were on the roads and rails. Although I am used to that with our systems here, having fewer people on the road/rails on weekends. Although with the NYC area, I assume even on a weekday the traffic level is still high. I know that the disasters we are prone to up here in the Pacific Northwest can strike at any time, like the Nisqually Earthquake. That only 1 person was killed in that one, and they dispute whether it was due to the quake itself, when it happened on a weekday morning. The 1949 quake centered near Olympia, was not so much.

[KevinKorell]

Evergreen, let's not forget too that Irene also caused long lasting impacts. Metro North's Port Jervis Line was out for 4 months before partial service could be restored, and then in the 5th month following, full pre-Irene service was back. NJT's RiverLINE had a washout that wasn't repaired until this past summer, almost 11 months after the storm. While service continued, it was at a critical passing point that resulted in single-tracking and reduced Sunday-level service every day of the week.