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#11 KevinKorell

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 05:48 PM

As of Tuesday evening the National Hurrican Center's projection has Chantal over the sotheast coast roughly Sunday evening heading northwest. If this current track and speed holds we pass through the storm while it is still over South Carolina and Georgia.[/url]

...... assuming CSX doesn't panic and remove all of their crossing gate arms, thus shutting everything down.


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#12 steve4031

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 08:27 PM

Well at least we would know before leaving the North east. What would the back up plan be? Truncate to Charlotte and Norfolk?

#13 KevinKorell

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 08:44 PM

Don't know. The Norfolk area is usually in the path of tropical storms that hit the NC Outer Banks.


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#14 EdFindlay

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 10:20 PM

Don't know. The Norfolk area is usually in the path of tropical storms that hit the NC Outer Banks.


Norfolk should be OK, it's looking like it'll be South Carolina/Georgia that gets the bulk of it. Unfortunately it's now projected to be hitting throughout Sunday which puts our trains directly in its path.

#15 KevinKorell

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 11:45 PM

There is some hope that when Chantal crosses Hispaniola (Dominican Republic & Haiti), the mountains could weaken it. I can deal with rain, and hopefully so can CSX. Rain coupled with high winds could pose a problem. We'll see.


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#16 steve4031

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 07:07 AM

The Chicago tribune has the storm Being off the coast of jax with 45 mph winds at 2 pm Sunday. The main concern seems to be flooding. How does csx respond to these conditions?

#17 BillMagee

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 09:06 AM

Pending this morning's reconnaissance flights, the National Hurricane Center may downgrade the storm to a tropical wave. It appears to be breaking up.

The 5am technical forecast discussion:

OBSERVATIONS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AND NOAA DATA BUOY
42059 INDICATE THAT CHANTAL MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO
DETERIORATED MARKEDLY THIS MORNING...AND IS BARELY CLASSIFIABLE BY
THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS DO NOT
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 40 KT...AND THE CURRENT WIND
SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE. EVEN IF CHANTAL DOES NOT CEASE ITS
EXISTENCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SHEAR...ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHOULD CAUSE FURTHER
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
THAT CHANTAL MOVED VERY RAPIDLY WESTWARD...NEAR 28 KT...OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A MORE CONSERVATIVE...LONGER-TERM...ESTIMATE
OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/25. A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STORM HAS BEEN STEERING IT QUICKLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD RESULT IN
CHANTAL...OR ITS REMNANT...TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY WESTWARD IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY... THIS NECESSITATES A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK. NONETHELESS...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

SINCE THE CYCLONE MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A WAVE...ADVISORIES MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.



#18 BillMagee

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 10:30 AM

This morning's flight found it is still a tropical storm, although rather disorganized. From the National Hurricane Center, 7/10/13 11:00am EDT:

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAD A
CLOSED CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...THANKS TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING CHANTAL...WE WERE
ABLE TO LOCATE ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...OR
PERHAPS MUCH EARLIER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER DEFINITION
IS POOR. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH MOVES EASTWARD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS DURING THE 2 TO 3
DAYS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.



#19 EdFindlay

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 01:20 PM

So overnight the preexisting low pressure storm over Florida saved the state from the storm giving them rain and wind...current projections have it moving north through the area Saturday but the track is uncertain and it doesn't look like it'll be beyond a steady rain with some gusts. Too early for a really accurate forecast but the National Weather Service has it as being a high of 89 with a chance of rain at 40% Monday.

#20 KevinKorell

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 03:41 PM

As of now, here is the weather forecast for Jacksonville for Monday, 7/15: High of 84, with 40% chance of rain, and some of that could be scattered thunderstorms. If I know Florida weather, rain storms do not usually last all day, they are hard but quickly over. So it's of little concern. And I'll take the 84 anytime, versus it being in the 90's or 100's.


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