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#21 BillMagee

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 03:51 PM

Goodbye, Chantal. The National Hurricane Center has officially downgraded the storm to a "tropical wave."

From the 5:00pm technical discussion:

AFTER FINDING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A CENTER EARLIER TODAY...THE SAME
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS INVESTIGATING
THE STORM AND DETERMINED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE DATA SHOWED A VERY STRONG WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AXIS OF A WAVE...WHICH IS NOW ALONG 73 OR 74 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE.

THE REMNANTS ARE STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS. EVEN THOUGH CHANTAL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE...THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
THIS WEATHER WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...CUBA AND FLORIDA WHERE THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE
HEADED. THIS WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANES ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF NECESSARY.



#22 pennyk

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 04:04 PM

This is from local Orlando news:

http://www.cfnews13....?cmpid=breaking

#23 KevinKorell

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 04:14 PM

As of now, here is the weather forecast for Charlotte, NC for Tuesday, 7/16: Day: High of 80, with 40% chance of rain including scattered thunderstorms. Night: Down to a low of 70, and the chance of rain drops to 30%. Our Fest time is probably somewhere in the middle given it's late afternoon/early evening, so figure on the high 70's. On Wednesday, 7/17, we are leaving very early in the morning, so count again on it being in the 70's before we depart.


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#24 KevinKorell

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 04:19 PM

As of now, here is the weather forecast for Cary, NC, where we expect to spend several hours between trains on 7/16: A high of 82 is expected, although it probably won't reach that during the morning hours we are there. Chance of rain is 40%.


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#25 KevinKorell

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 04:25 PM

As of now, here is the weather forecast for Wednesday, 7/17 for Richmond, VA --- where we expect to spend several hours between trains: High of 90 degrees, chance of rain is just 10%. So expect it to be steamy here as it's a good portion of the afternoon when temperatures usually peak.


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#26 KevinKorell

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 04:29 PM

As of now, here is the weather forecast for Norfolk, VA. First the evening of Wed., 7/17 for our arrival in town: It should be dropping from the high of 89 degrees to the night's low of 76. So I would expect the temperature to be in the mid 80's. The chance of precipitation is 10% during the day, dropping to zero at night. For Thursday, 7/18, when we will be conducting our activities in Norfolk, a high of 91 is predicted, so dress accordingly. Chance of rain: 0%.


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#27 KevinKorell

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 04:38 PM

Keep in mind, the later in the Fest, the farther ahead these predictions are, so they are surely subject to change. Updates will follow as we get closer. Here is the current forecast at this time for the Washington, DC area for Friday, July 19th: High of 91 degrees, with a 10% chance of precipitation. Leaving there in the noon hour, it may not yet have reached that peak. As for Fredericksburg, VA, for later the same day the current forecast is exactly the same as Washington's, and by late mid-afternoon when we are there is more than likely will be at or near 91.


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#28 EdFindlay

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 06:24 PM

As of now, here is the weather forecast for Jacksonville for Monday, 7/15:

High of 84, with 40% chance of rain, and some of that could be scattered thunderstorms. If I know Florida weather, rain storms do not usually last all day, they are hard but quickly over. So it's of little concern. And I'll take the 84 anytime, versus it being in the 90's or 100's.


The second part of that that we need to know is that it will be in the low 70s late and into the overnight. Chance of rain is even less. National Weather Service isn't reporting any hazardous weather for Monday, so it'll be the quick rain showers if we get them at all.

#29 pennyk

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 06:34 PM

As of now, here is the weather forecast for Jacksonville for Monday, 7/15:

High of 84, with 40% chance of rain, and some of that could be scattered thunderstorms. If I know Florida weather, rain storms do not usually last all day, they are hard but quickly over. So it's of little concern. And I'll take the 84 anytime, versus it being in the 90's or 100's.


Speaking as a lifelong Floridian, I wholeheartedly agree with Kevin. The forecast for 7/15 in JAX (and WPK, which is similar - see below), looks good - compared to what it could be.

Winter Park: Mon, Jul 15, Scattered T-Storms High 84°, low 73°; Scattered T-Storms; CHANCE OF RAIN: 30%

#30 KevinKorell

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 06:34 PM

And I'm breathing a lot easier than I was 2 days ago. Every Fest comes with its challenges, but sometimes they aren't known until we get to our host cities. I'm relieved things are looking more promising, and in fact (if the current predictions hold up) not uncomfortably hot.


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