18 replies to this topic

[BillMagee]

OK: let’s try this one more time. When last we left you back in June, my wife and I had just cancelled our trip on the Coast Starlight literally minutes prior to the scheduled departure. We had planned to take the Starlight from Seattle to San Francisco but bailed out when the northbound train arrived nearly 12 hours late into Seattle: just 2 hours prior to the scheduled southbound departure. This all but guaranteed a multi-hour late departure of our southbound #11. In fact it finally left over three hours late but without us as we were back in our Seattle hotel for one extra day and night. The next day it was Southwest Airlines to Oakland where we saw our star-crossed Starlight from BART on the way from the airport to downtown SF. That was to have been our first Amtrak overnight adventure in seven years (Empire Builder, April 1998). Would it be another seven years before we would dare try again? In a word: no. With the financial buzzards once again circling Amtrak I felt maybe it would be now or never for a long distance train ride. My wife, bless her heart, cheerfully went along with the plan (despite the June Starlight fiasco and her general lack of enthusiasm for trains). So, we have booked a Bedroom on the California Zephyr from Chicago to San Francisco. We are taking the Zephyr end to end: lake to coast: Windy City to The City. 2438 miles covered in 53 hours (or maybe a couple more) with two nights and six meals and a couple of big mountain ranges enroute. We leave this Saturday, August 20. Here is the itinerary: US Airways from Philadelphia to Chicago on Friday 8/19, overnight in the Loop, Amtrak #5 to San Francisco 8/20-22, stay in San Francisco and Carmel 8-22 to 27, and air back home on Saturday 8/27 (Frontier through Denver: first time on us on F9). Add in a visit to the Art Institute in Chicago, a Phillies - Giants game at SBC Park in San Francisco, and some much needed R&R in Carmel, and we definitely have a plan. But will we really take Amtrak this time? Is there another wimp-out in the cards? Will we be seen running from Union Station in the general direction of Midway Airport? Barring an Am-catastrophe, I swear we are going to get on that train. Las Vegas is posting 1:5 odds that this time we ride.

Edited by BillMagee, 16 August 2005 - 06:10 AM.

[Sloan]

Looks like a nifty trip, Bill. I hope you have a wonderful time. Sloan

[KevinKorell]

Bill, Have a great trip, no matter what mode you end up on! Here's to a successful and peaceful westbound TRAIN trip!

[BillMagee]

We arrived Chicago this afternoon (Friday) and are staying tonight at the Palmer House Hilton before heading west tomorrow on the Zephyr. But, one last train-related item before we surrender to the whims of Amtrak, BNSF, and the Union Pacific.

As we all know, the California Zephyr is not a stellar performer from an on-time reliability standpoint. So, what can we expect? How late will we be? Well, the wild and wacky world of statistical analysis can try to answer that question.

Beginning in late June (when we first contemplated this trip) I started tracking the Zephyr’s Chicago departure times and the arrival times at major stops. Now, with a little over 50 trips recorded, and with the help of some data forecasting formulas, here are the predictions of our departure and arrival times.

Leave Chicago: scheduled departure: 1:50pm
The statistical prediction of our departure time is: 1:50pm (on time)
It is 95% probable that our departure will be between 1:50pm and 1:56pm (on time to 0:06 late)

Arrive Omaha: scheduled: 10:19pm
Predicted arrival: 10:58pm (0:39 late)
95% probable arrival: between 10:27pm and 11:28pm

Arrive Denver: scheduled: 7:30am
Predicted arrival: 7:52am (0:22 late)
95% probable arrival: between 7:27am and 8:16am

Arrive Glenwood Springs: scheduled: 1:53pm
Predicted arrival: 2:50pm (0:57 late)
95% probable arrival: between 2:49pm and 3:49pm

Arrive Salt Lake City: scheduled: 11:33pm
Predicted arrival: 12:14am (0:41 late)
95% probable arrival: between 11:40pm and 12:47am

Arrive Reno: scheduled: 9:14am
Predicted arrival: 12:10pm (2:56 late)
95% probable arrival: between 11:31am and 12:49pm

Arrive Sacramento: scheduled: 2:15pm
Predicted arrival: 6:16pm (4:01 late)
95% probable arrival: between 5:35pm and 6:57pm

Arrive Emeryville: scheduled: 4:49pm
Predicted arrival: 8:12pm (3:23 late)
95% probable arrival: between 7:30pm and 8:53pm

So, there you have it. We should run reasonably on schedule until Denver, fall about a half hour or so behind by Salt Lake City, and end the trip about three and a half hours late at Emeryville. All in all, that’s not too bad. There is at least a chance we will be able get to our hotel in San Francisco and head out for a late dinner after arrival (we know a really nice place open until midnight).

I will check in from San Francisco and add a reply to show what actually happened.

Edited by BillMagee, 19 August 2005 - 11:38 PM.

[KevinKorell]

Good luck as you venture out into the great unknown. BTW, I saw a report that Hilton was selling the Palmer House in Chicago.

[BillMagee]

Good luck as you venture out into the great unknown. 

BTW, I saw a report that Hilton was selling the Palmer House in Chicago.

I did not know that. I've stayed here a number of times on business, and love the place. I understand the price tag is $250 million. Any takers out there?

Time to check out and head for Union Station. Get back with you guys on the other end.

[KevinKorell]

Off topic:

News of Palmer House for sale is here.

[KevinKorell]

So far, so good. Bill's CALIFORNIA ZEPHYR departed Chicago exactly on time at 1:50 PM CDT. Looks like as it approaches Galesburg, IL, the train is just 3 minutes late.

[AmtrakFan]

Mr. Bill, I did get some Photos of your Train and if you want a copy when I get them delvoped I will e-mail you one. Mr. Korell Power was 152 and 141.

[Sam Damon]

According to the Amtrak website, #5 (20) arrived in Omaha at 11:01p, just three minutes later than Bill's prediction based on statistical analysis! You rock, Bill! Amtrak's website is also predicting #5 (20) will make up time, and arrive in Denver at 7:44a, 14 minutes off the timecard. Bill's prediction: 7:52a, 22 minutes off the timecard! Tune in tommorrow to see who's computer is better -- OTOL Forum regular, or the Mighty Amtrak Predictor -- same Bat-Time, same Bat-Channel!