Edited by BillMagee, 16 August 2005 - 06:10 AM.
California Zephyr Chicago to San Francisco
#1
Posted 15 August 2005 - 06:52 PM
#2
Posted 16 August 2005 - 07:18 AM
#3
Posted 16 August 2005 - 12:33 PM
Kevin Korell
OTOL Board Leader
Lakewood, NJ
#4
Posted 19 August 2005 - 11:37 PM
As we all know, the California Zephyr is not a stellar performer from an on-time reliability standpoint. So, what can we expect? How late will we be? Well, the wild and wacky world of statistical analysis can try to answer that question.
Beginning in late June (when we first contemplated this trip) I started tracking the Zephyr’s Chicago departure times and the arrival times at major stops. Now, with a little over 50 trips recorded, and with the help of some data forecasting formulas, here are the predictions of our departure and arrival times.
Leave Chicago: scheduled departure: 1:50pm
The statistical prediction of our departure time is: 1:50pm (on time)
It is 95% probable that our departure will be between 1:50pm and 1:56pm (on time to 0:06 late)
Arrive Omaha: scheduled: 10:19pm
Predicted arrival: 10:58pm (0:39 late)
95% probable arrival: between 10:27pm and 11:28pm
Arrive Denver: scheduled: 7:30am
Predicted arrival: 7:52am (0:22 late)
95% probable arrival: between 7:27am and 8:16am
Arrive Glenwood Springs: scheduled: 1:53pm
Predicted arrival: 2:50pm (0:57 late)
95% probable arrival: between 2:49pm and 3:49pm
Arrive Salt Lake City: scheduled: 11:33pm
Predicted arrival: 12:14am (0:41 late)
95% probable arrival: between 11:40pm and 12:47am
Arrive Reno: scheduled: 9:14am
Predicted arrival: 12:10pm (2:56 late)
95% probable arrival: between 11:31am and 12:49pm
Arrive Sacramento: scheduled: 2:15pm
Predicted arrival: 6:16pm (4:01 late)
95% probable arrival: between 5:35pm and 6:57pm
Arrive Emeryville: scheduled: 4:49pm
Predicted arrival: 8:12pm (3:23 late)
95% probable arrival: between 7:30pm and 8:53pm
So, there you have it. We should run reasonably on schedule until Denver, fall about a half hour or so behind by Salt Lake City, and end the trip about three and a half hours late at Emeryville. All in all, that’s not too bad. There is at least a chance we will be able get to our hotel in San Francisco and head out for a late dinner after arrival (we know a really nice place open until midnight).
I will check in from San Francisco and add a reply to show what actually happened.
Edited by BillMagee, 19 August 2005 - 11:38 PM.
#5
Posted 20 August 2005 - 10:23 AM
Kevin Korell
OTOL Board Leader
Lakewood, NJ
#6
Posted 20 August 2005 - 12:34 PM
I did not know that. I've stayed here a number of times on business, and love the place. I understand the price tag is $250 million. Any takers out there?Good luck as you venture out into the great unknown.
BTW, I saw a report that Hilton was selling the Palmer House in Chicago.
Time to check out and head for Union Station. Get back with you guys on the other end.
#8
Posted 20 August 2005 - 04:42 PM
Kevin Korell
OTOL Board Leader
Lakewood, NJ
#9
Posted 20 August 2005 - 08:56 PM
#10
Posted 20 August 2005 - 11:40 PM
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