48 replies to this topic

[BillMagee]

As of Sunday, 1/13 per Accuweather:

 

Friday afternoon: New York – Partly cloudy, 41°

Friday/Saturday overnight: New York – Partly cloudy, 35°

 

Saturday morning: New York – Partly cloudy, 38°

Saturday afternoon: Albany – Partly cloudy, 35°

Saturday evening: Rochester – Cloudy, snow (trace)*, 17°

Saturday/Sunday overnight: Rochester – Cloudy, snow (trace)*, 6°

 

Sunday morning: Rochester – Cloudy, snow showers*, 9°

Sunday afternoon: Albany – Cloudy, snow showers*, 15°

Sunday evening: Springfield – Clear, 15°

Sunday/Monday overnight: Springfield – Clear, 6°

 

Monday morning: Springfield – Sunny, 10°

Monday afternoon: New York – Sunny, 33°

 

*Watch the development of the Saturday-Sunday storm.

 

[steve4031]

Thank you.

[KevinKorell]

Latest weather forecasts on NYC TV stations are stating there is possibility of a major winter storm over the Saturday-Sunday period over our Fest weekend.  Not too many details about it are known at this time, and it could come earlier or last later.   Not much is known about how this would affect Upstate New York and Massachusetts.

[steve4031]

An alternative forecast for Rochester too.

CARROT Weather's forecast for Rochester showed 9-14 inches of snow for Rochester on Sunday. I cant post the link though. I think they all are guessing right now.

Edited by steve4031, 13 January 2019 - 08:01 PM.

[pennyk]

An alternative forecast for Rochester too.

CARROT Weather's forecast for Rochester showed 9-14 inches of snow for Rochester on Sunday. 

WOW.  That is a lot of snow!  I am trying to wrap my head around that (as I am sitting at home in shorts after a high of 80 here today).

[bratkinson]

If the various sources of weather forecasts were more than 50% accurate 5+ days in the future, I'd be surprised. 

 

Here in the Springfield MA area, the local channels repeatedly end up 'moving' storms a day further into the future as things take place out west, etc.  They all tend to forecast 5+ degrees too low during the heat of summer, and 5+ degrees too warm in the winter.  Lately, I've found Weather.com to be most accurate...within 48-72 hours ahead.  Beyond that, it's any body's guess what the weather will be and throwing dice might be a better predictor.  One need only look at the 15 or more potential hurricane 'tracks' put out for every hurricane to realize there is neither consistency nor 'rules' in weather forecasting.  Throw in the accuracies and inaccruracies in computer programming/modeling, I'm surprised 'they' even get it right within 24 hours.  Of late, how many forecasts for heavy snow panned out to be a couple inches but the NEC was shut down anyway?

 

Current weather.com forecast for Springfield for next Sunday is 20s and snow, and Monday is upper 10s and clear.  I have little doubt that come Thursday, weather.com will be forecasting something different.

 

Skeptical me...

Bruce

[KevinKorell]

We discussed the weather worries on the Sunday TRAINS chat tonight. We're still playing it by ear as it's a week out.  As Bruce says, predictions can and will change between now and then.   We all have to keep in mind the advance cancellation deadlines for our hotels.   I just checked my reservations, and the HGI's in Rochester and Springfield each would have to be cancelled by 11:59 PM ET 2 days before.  So Saturday's would need to be cancelled by Thursday night, and Sunday's would need to be cancelled by Friday night.  For those staying in New York City on Friday evening, most hotels in NYC seem to have a Three-day advance cancellation policy, which would mean doing so by Tuesday night 1/15 11:59 PM ET.

 

Long distance trains, including those who reserved sleepers on the Lake Shore Limited, are a little trickier.  Even more trickier for those travelling from Florida as things could change while they're in transit.   Should Amtrak cancel things in advance with enough notice to us, that pretty much seals our fate, but the plus side should be full refunds.

[BillMagee]

There are two storms heading to the northeast. The first one on Thursday could result in a couple of inches of snow in the New York area. The bigger issue is the second one on Saturday into Sunday. That presently looks to dump about a foot or more of snow with Springfield being the biggest issue.

 

With winter storms, the exact tracks and temperatures are critical to the snowfall amounts.  Both can be hard to predict.  At six days out (the second storm), the forecast is an educated guess.  For what it is worth, here are the latest GFS model runs for the two storms showing predicted 24-hour snow accumulations.

 

GFS 01/14/19 7am model run for Friday at 7am

 GFS_12z190114_12z190118.png   134.67KB   0 downloads

 

GFS 01/14/19 7am model run for Sunday at 7pm

 GFS_12z190114_00z190121.png   151.06KB   0 downloads

[pennyk]

The weather forecast is really scaring me (lifelong Floridian who has never walked with luggage in the snow).  

 

For those of you that are thinking of canceling, are you considering modifying your reservations (and possibly avoiding a penalty depending on the agent) to different dates?  If so, do you have dates in mind?  Are any considering just going to NYC for the weekend (even though looks like snow on Sunday in NYC, but nothing like ROC and SPG)?

[KevinKorell]

Harper is the next winter storm name, and I suspect the weekend storm will meet the qualifications for naming.

 

We need to have a more real-time discussion about this, as some participants don't regularly look at this board.   Either a phone call, or more likely a group text, so we can discuss what we think is best.  I don't want to panic at this point and cancel out, but at the same time I realize that some financial loss can occur from Amtrak's refund policy if they don't outright cancel the trains.  I also have in mind everyone's health and safety.  We should communicate by tomorrow midday so that appropriate cancellations can occur (particularly with the NYC hotels if applicable since Tuesday night is the deadline).