From CSX service advisory posted here.

Amtrak service advisory:

The latest updates and changes from Amtrak:



The full press release can be found here.

So NASA and Amtrak (and CSX) saw the same weather forecast about Ernesto. After due consideration this is what happened:

NASA decided that the storm was not as strong as it was originally feared and would decay into a Tropical Depression by the time it gets to the Cape, and stopped moving the Shuttle towards the VAB and moved it back to the launch pad.

Amtrak, after consulting with CSX I am sure, decided that the storm was going to be real bad and decided to completely cancel all its Southbound trains to Florida.

Since then the Hurricane warnings have been discontinued along the Carolina coast and the Tropical Storm has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression. It might still become a minimal Tropical Storm again and hence Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted where there were Hurricane Warnings before.

Maybe National Weather Service needs to come up with a "Stiff Breeze Warning" or something to give Amtrak and CSX a weather catagory in which they would not cancel trains.

Go figure.

Jishnu.

The NASA decision makes some sense, as the shuttle is an expensive and it takes a long time to part it in the garage. Plus it was not going to launch with cloudy skies anyway.

Amtrak and csx on the other hand could have been flexible, could wait to see what developed before deciding where to run trains. When they pulled the trigger hurricane advisory #17 had been out an hour, had winds at 40mph with rain of up to six inches, and the storm was expected to get stronger. However by the morning of the 29th it was not stronger, and by 5pm on the 29 there was no longer any expectation of anything more than 45 mph. By noon on the 29th the weather situation no longer was a threat to AMtrak. Amtrak decided to make their decisions a day before they had too, presumably so that they had no obligations to get people to their destinations if the train did not go to Miami.

Anulling any trains on the 30th never had any justification, in particular Auto Train.

The full press release can be found here.

Jishnu,

Don't be too hard on Amtrak, this wasn't their decision. It was taken out of their hands entirely by other entities.

Tri-Rail announced early Monday afternoon that they were shutting down their tracks on Tuesday, including removing the gate arms from the crossing gate mechanism. Tri-Rail cancelled all of their service for Tuesday. That move cut Amtrak off from it's Miami base forcing them to make the delayed announcment that Silver trains that had already departed from NY in one case, and the other about to depart, would have to turn at Orlando. And my informant tells me that they were indeed out there removing the gates from the crossings as soon as the last northbound Tri-Rail train left Miami on Monday night.

I've also heard that CSX then decided to embargo the A line south of JAX on Tuesday, starting Wednesday morning because of the threats of flooding. Even though the winds were not an issue, they were expecting potentially 10 or more inches of rain from the storm. The space shuttle wouldn't care about 10 inches of rain, only high winds. But those that own train tracks do care about 10 inches of rain. That decision then cut Amtrak off from Sanford, which then forced the cancellation of the Auto Trains and Silver Service completely.

Both CSX and Tri-Rail plan to reopen as of tomorrow, which is why the AT is running again as mentioned in the above update, as well as some Silver Service. Miami has no equipment at this point, so there will be no northbound trains until a southbound train makes it through to Miami.

However, because of the threat of flooding as Ernesto moves up the coast as well as backlogged freight with the closures; 89/90 are cancelled for tomorrow and possibly Friday if there is too much flooding. Too much flooding could also once again halt the AT and all Silver Service, but Amtrak is trying to get things going again, weather permitting.

So how did the Northbound Silver Service (both trains) make it out of Orlando headed for New York today?
They are actually both running surprisingly close to on time so far. Most likely CSX decided by 10am that there was going to be no 10 inches of rain and reversed their decision.

I also can't figure out what caused them to cancel both the Southbound Silver trains today. I can understand the logic of canceling the earlier southbound departures tomorrow given the expected path and timing of the Carolinas landfall for the tropical storm.

It also occurs to me that if each time 10 inches of rain was expected somewhere on its tracks Indian Railways decided to shut down operations, there would be very few cross country trains running in India through the Monsoon season


Hey, I'll be in the thick of whatever happens, since I will be on 97 departing tomorrow.

BTW, I am sure Amtrak was not the primary decision maker in most of this. It is more likely that CSX calls the shots.

My guess is that there is at least one consist down in Orlando or Miami or somewhere, which will be used for 92 on Sept 1. I surmise this since there is nothing going down today as both 91 and 97 are cancelled. It is also reasonable to surmise perhaps that there is only one consist down in Florida since 98 is cancelled on Sept 1. I suspect on Sept 2 92 will be cancelled since there is no 91 going down to Florida tomorrow, unless a consist materializes surprisingly from somewhere in Florida.

Well I did say I heard. Never said that one was confirmed.



Good luck!




It's possible that they've got a spare set sitting in Sanford, that they can roll out to Orlando, I'm not sure about that. I suppose that were I inclined to start counting how many went down vs how many came back, that maybe I could figure that out.

However, I can confirm that Miami has no train sets down there. A mechanic who works in the Hialeah yard worked on the very last consist that they sent north on Monday. He confirmed to me that Hialeah does not have enough cars left to field another train.

This idea that they had to close the railroad because it might flood sounds iffy to me. The forcast was for up to ten inches of rain, but over a three day period. If the railroad, in Florida where tropical storms are a normal part of life, is not built to stand up to ten inches of rain in three days then we've got a problem folks. In the last hundred years has it been normal sop to shut things down when a weak tropical storm rolls in? I don't think so.

In any case none of Florida has had more than 4 inches or rain in the last 48 hours, none has had more than an inch today, and the railroad is still shut down?? NY state has had more rain over the last 48hours, is NY shut down? That would be a NO.

Knowing CSX as we do, I think it fair to assume that the legal guys started running on about probabilities of liability problems and the number crunchers started in about the inefficiencies to be expected in operating during hostile weather, which was quickly followed by management putting out the shut-down order. I doubt very much that management thought for two seconds about their fiduciary responsibility to the American people to keep the railroad operating, or their obligations as a stockholder in Amtrak to run Amtrak when possible. CSX management has a decade long history of taking the easy way out of problems, of not making the attempt when things get tough. It shan't be long before we see them shutting down in snow storms I think.

I've seen Florida after a heavy rain - unlike NY, the state is flat (highest point, Lakewood Park 345 ft is in the Panhandle, northwest of De Funiak Springs, near the Georgia border), water stands - slow run-off.

The moment a passenger train is trapped by a fallen tree (caused by saturated soil) all the critics here will slam Amtrak for not having buses standing by at 10 mile intervals.

Seriously, Floridians were battening down the hatches, getting supplies and gas at the recommendation of the Governor - should the railroads do any less? I think not.

That explained one day, maybe. With-in six hours of hitting the mainland it was clear that this storm was not going to amount to anything so it was time to get ready to change course and open up the railroad. The tree thing is very far fetched. AS of a week ago most of the state was classified as either dry or in stage one of drought so I don't see ten inches of rain and 45 mph winds bringing down very many trees. The four inches they ended up getting sure did not.

Florida Service Alert from Amtrak for Aug 31 and Sept 1 issued 6pm Aug 30:

"UPDATED:
6:00 p.m Eastern Time
August 30, 2006

Based on the projected path of Tropical Storm Ernesto, Amtrak will temporarily modify some Florida rail service, effective Wednesday, August 31."

Tropical storm-NOT!. Ernesto had been downgraded to tropical depression more than six hours earlier, and was now essentually a large rain storm. But what the heck, let's play it up, cancel trains, make CSX happy, and save some money. The people with tickets will understand....right?

All trains to/from Florida cancelled as National Weather Service upgrades Tropical Storm Ernesto warning for the Carolinas to Hurricane Watch at 11am. The predominant model wind speed at projected landfall is now 60Kt, which is just 4Kt below Hurricane, hence the upgrade to Hurricane Watch.



So now I am going down to Orlando by Continental tomorrow on one of their now rare domestic 757s, and even saving some money when compared to sleeper fares. Also got a complementary upgrade. So while I am sad that I could not get my train ride, overall I am a happy camper. At least I get to ride the train back, and for some reason the sleeper fare on that train is absurdly low. So all in all things look good so far.

If you look at the wind speed probablity model put out at 2pm you will see that the storm is expected to lose 50-60% of its wind before it hits the csx line, as the line in far to the west of the coast. If, and only if, the storm takes the most westernly line of the computer models as of 5pm the wind speeds will be 25-30mph when it gets to the csx. If it takes the most easternly route modeled the csx will get what amounts to a stiff breeze. The rain totals could make it to 10 inches over three days, and as in florida most of the line sits atop soil that as of AUG 29 was clasified as dry or in stage one drought. Mark my words, the csx will sustain zero damage from either wind or water, and it is very unlikely that they will lose power. All of this is forseeable based upon current weather models and current soil conditions.

I just hope they manage to get a consist down to Florida in time for actually running 92 on Monday, so that I can at least ride the train one way.

The latest update from Amtrak:

The weather channel currently has a 24 hour rain total map up that ended 7am today. Looking at it it is clear that no part of CSX got more than 4 inches of rain. All of the heavy stuff was to the east, thus ran into the ocean without effecting the line. There are enough people who know the real situation on the ground that CSX and Amtrak no doubt were quickly running out of excuses fop keeping things shut down.the sad truth

The sad truth:



Last I knew the CSX line used by Amtrak ran directly through Richmond.

The above quote comes from this MSN news story.

For more sad truths, check out the following stories.

From the Rocky Mount Telegram:





Note: Nash and Edgecombe counties, the twin counties, include the city of Rocky Mount; through which runs the CSX line in question.

Or perhaps these quotes from the Times Dispatch in Viginia:





Finally there is the CSX news bulletin posted here, which mentions that they shut down the line. It also talks about downed trees that they had to remove, as well as power failures to deal with.

Well both 91 and 97 left NY today, so they should arrive in time to turn as a northbound trains on Monday.

I'm not exactly sure what portion of Richmond had the evacuations, but there was a reporter from the Weather Channel stationed in the Shockoe Bottom section of the city, which had serious flooding two years ago from Tropical Storm Gaston. That area lucked out this time, with very minimal water buildup - certainly nothing warranting evacuating residents.

Shockoe Bottom is where the Main Street Amtrak station is located, so if that area were flooded it would have affected only the Newport News trains, and not the trains to North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, since they take the circuitous route around the city.

The National weather service prelim post mortem is here listing max wind and storm rain totals in Virginia. There were localized areas of very heavy rain, most if not all to the east of CSX operations, which lead to flash flooding conditions. Normally this would be low areas and problems with storm drains, the sort of thing that does not effect a rail line. I checked the river reports and none had any problems during the storm, assumably because the average rain total over the state was only a few inches, and because the state had been dry before the storm.

CSX stayed operational, it seems like they did a good job preparing so that they could stay operational, and I bet that they moved all or most of the freight that they wanted to get moved. What did not get moved was Amtrak. The weather situation was one that had to be dealt with, it was, it was not a cause of major operational problems, the forcasts gave every indication that this would be the outcome, so Amtrak should have been operated.

CSX specifically stated in their press release that they did not remain operational.

"CSX specifically stated in their press release that they did not remain operational."

OK Alan, I was talking about main lines, you know, like the A line that Amtrak normally uses. I will grant you that a couple of chicken feed trains did not make it over the a lightly used (50 trains a month) secondary line (W&W sub) as they normally would have traveled because of the storm. I doubt that CSX made any attempt to keep this line open as they had no reason to do so, but maybe few trees fell across the line. Of even this we cannot be sure. We know that at one or more trees fell on the W&W sub right-of-way, and that is all we know. We have no knowledge that the Wilmington sub was physically non-op, only that CSX did not operate it. The port of Wilmington was closed for the hurricane thus there was little or no traffic to carry on the Wilmington sub during the storm. Closing the line was inconsequential, and may not have been weather related much less weather mandated. This closing could be justified for economic reasons alone.

Source matterial for the opinions stated above